[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N22W 3N45W 1N50W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED E OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE W GULF N OF 23N W OF 87W TO OVER TEXAS AND
MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FELL APART AFTER
ENTERING THE GULF SUN AND NOW REMAINS AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA SW TO 26N89W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF 90W TO OVER
FLORIDA. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE ACROSS TEXAS AND
WILL BE IN THE GULF LATER TODAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR IS MOVING ACROSS THE W GULF GIVING LOUISIANA...
TEXAS...AND NE MEXICO CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E
GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 75W IN THE W ATLC. A JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT CROSSES MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO TO JUST N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO AND FUELING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA W TO
THE E GULF NEAR 24N85W. THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
GULF LATER TODAY AND MOVE E ACROSS THE N GULF BEING IN THE W
ATLC ON TUE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE DEVELOP ACROSS THE
N GULF TODAY WITH CLEARING BY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE W TO CENTRAL ATLC AND AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH COLOMBIA
TO OVER E CUBA ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S OF 15N
W OF 72W WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA TO W COLOMBIA GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N E OF 75W. NO BIG CHANGES
ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE
TRADES REMAINING RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM E CUBA TO NEAR 32N75W
COVERING THE E GULF AND W ATLC W OF 67W. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF BERMUDA
NEAR 30N65W AND COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC...N CARIBBEAN...AND
THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 19N FROM 35W TO 67W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING SSW TO 19N44W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-30N W OF
45W. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75/90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 26N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N45W ENE ALONG 18N36W TO
BEYOND 32N21W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH BETWEEN
THE AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N20W SSW TO JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N27W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE E ATLC FROM 14N-26N E OF 30W THUS LIMITING CONVECTION
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


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