[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292306
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 4N35W 2N45W 1N50W.
THE AXIS IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH LITTLE CONVECTION. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF ALONG 30N88W 27N92W. THIS TROUGH IS SSE OF A LIFTING COLD
FRONT IN THE SE U.S. BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF THE AL COASTLINE TO THE FL
PANHANDLE BETWEEN 28N-31N. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
S NEAR 10-15 KT...EXCEPT FOR 10 KT NW WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. A
1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
30N67W IS SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF. THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS MOVES INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW COVERS THE AREA
WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NW GULF W OF 94N N OF 24N
WHERE DRY AIR ALOFT IS PRESENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA CAUSING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS NEAR 20-25 KTS WITH
PATCHES OF 25-30 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W
...WHILE 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE W OF 80W.  BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS...BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAVE
DRIFTED SOUTHWARD AND EXTEND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 16N59W TO 10N81W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW...NO BIG
CHANGES ARE IN STORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN N OF 14N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 20N67W. THIS HIGH
IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC W OF 50W. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED FROM 50W-70W N OF 20N.
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM A 1004 MB LOW NORTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 40N34W AND EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N35W 24N40W
18N47W. BROKEN CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
26N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. LOW
CLOUDS EXTEND AS FAR AS 400 NM BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 26N.
FARTHER EAST...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N20W. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MOST OF THE ATLANTIC HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZED CLOUD COVER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 65W.  A BROAD TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 35W-65W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-35W AND AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH IS N OF 30N E OF 10W.  FURTHER S...WESTERLY
FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 10W-60W.  MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC FROM 50-70W BETWEEN 14N-30N AND
FROM 10N-30N E OF 40W.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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