[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 4N35W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 11W-13W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SE
TEXAS ALONG 30N89W 26N95W MOVING E.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM
28N-30N BETWEEN 88W-90W.  10 KT NW WINDS ARE N OF THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT S
WINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS ADVECTING A BROAD BAND
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH 90-110 KT SW FLOW.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE TO N FLORIDA AT THE 24 HOUR POINT WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W...WHILE
15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE W OF 80W.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER PANAMA...N COLOMBIA...AND VENEZUELA WITH SW FLOW.
IN CONTRAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND NO HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N67W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N36W 26N40W 18N49W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.
CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTEND AS
FAR W AS THE BAHAMAS.  ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 33N22W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A BROAD TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-70W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-40W.  FURTHER
S...WESTERLY FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 10W-60W.  MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E ATLC FROM 10N-30N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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