[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N22W 4N39W 1N47W 1N53W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 30W TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
MOVING NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NW
GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL E OF THE
FRONT WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N87W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. SKIES ARE CLEARING WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE TEXAS COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ACROSS THE NE FLORIDA AND THE SE US ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO FUELING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA SW TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF
LATER TODAY AND MOVE E ACROSS THE N GULF BEING IN THE W ATLC ON
TUE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF TODAY AND
MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH COLOMBIA TO
OVER CUBA ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E TO NE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
OVER W COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 80W. NO BIG CHANGES
ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE
TRADES REMAINING STRONG THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF TO OVER THE SE US
COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 73W. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER
THE W ATLC WITH A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N69W
AND COVERS THE W ATLC...N CARIBBEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N FROM 38W TO 73W. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N38W EXTENDING SSW TO 19N51W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N-30N W OF
43W. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM DEEP IN THE TROPICS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3N47W NE TO BEYOND 32N26W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 350/400
NM OF THE AXIS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS MOSTLY
N OF 30N. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 15N AND COVERS
THE E ATLC E OF 20W OVER AFRICA TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND OVER AFRICA. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES S ALONG
32N21W TO 19N26W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E ATLC
FROM 10N-24N E OF 35W THUS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net