[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N23W 2N39W EQ51W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 42W TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
MOVING NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE INLAND OVER THE US BUT IS
ALREADY GIVING THE NW GULF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
24N W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE MEAN
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE SE US. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO FUELING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE WELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1032 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA SW TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO JUST S OF TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
GULF LATER TODAY AND MOVE E ACROSS THE N GULF BEING IN THE W
ATLC ON TUE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF
SUN AND MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER CUBA ARE PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E TO
NE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 80W AND N OF 10N W OF 80W.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF LAST WEEK PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150/180 NM OF LINE FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE
FOR THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE TRADES
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF TO OVER THE SE US
COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER
THE W ATLC WITH A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N71W AND COVERS
THE W ATLC...N CARIBBEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 43W TO 75W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING SSW TO 15N56W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N-30N W OF
47W. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM DEEP IN
THE TROPICS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N47W NE TO
BEYOND 32N30W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 350/400 NM OF THE
AXIS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS MOSTLY N OF 30N.
A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 12N AND COVERS THE E ATLC E
OF 25W OVER AFRICA TO JUST ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND OVER AFRICA. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES SSW ALONG
32N23W TO 12N34W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E ATLC
FROM 10N-23N E OF 35W THUS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


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