[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282301
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 2N30W 2N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 30W-37W AND BETWEEN 20W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N65W IS
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SE WINDS NEAR 20-25 KT EXIST EAST OF 90W. WEST
OF 90W...WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY ALSO NEAR 20-25 KT. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1003 MB LOW OVER THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
STREAMING NEWARD FROM THE EPAC INTO MEXICO AND THE W GULF...WEST
OF 92W. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
TSTMS W OF 95W N OF 26N. THE SFC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERS THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT E OF
92W S OF 26N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF AREA IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND MODERATE TO STRONG ENE TRADE WINDS OF 25-30 KT
ACROSS THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD...MONA AND ANEGADA
PASSAGES. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE ALONG 18N58W 15N66W 14N80W...THIS INCLUDES THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE...SMALL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WSW
BY THE TRADES. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA ENHANCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN...ESPECIALLY W OF 76W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC W OF 50W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE SFC HIGH TO MOVE SEWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 32N42W THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 25N47W 16N57W.  BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 36N22W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS
THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF 70W. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 45W-70W.  AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS BETWEEN 20W-45W AND A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES ALONG
THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 20W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
LEVEL AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 12N AND EAST
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

$$
CANGIALOSI





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