[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N25W 2N43W EQ49W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 4W-8W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 8W-17W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 19W-24W...FROM EQ-3N
BETWEEN 30W-34W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1035 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W.  A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W.  15-20
KT E TO SE WINDS WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER TEXAS MOVING E.  A BAND OF
MULTILAYERED OVERCAST CLOUDS COVERS E TEXAS E OF 99W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A
RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 90W.  UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N96W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE SE GULF SE OF THE LINE.  EXPECT A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE NW GULF AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD...MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ALTHOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. OTHER
PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
ADVECTING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N43W THEN CONTINUES SW TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 25N50W 17N61W.  BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
THE FLORIDA COAST.  FARTHER EAST...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 36N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 50W-80W.  AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS BETWEEN 20W-50W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA E OF 20W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 12N AND EAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

$$
FORMOSA




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