[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2.5N-4.5N
BETWEEN 13W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG/AND WITHIN
100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-40W. ALSO...A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
2W-6W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND BREEZE CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE/STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. ESE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KTS...AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...COVER THE GULF EAST OF
90W...WHILE SE TO S WINDS ARE FOUND WEST OF THERE. THE EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE DAY GOES BY...
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND
TO THE SE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN THE NW GULF TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF A LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SW WINDS ARE BRINGING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTH PORTION OF
MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD...MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ALTHOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. OTHER
PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE OVER N
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS PANAMA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N47W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG
25N54W TO NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THERE ARE WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N33W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE
ATLANTIC S OF 32N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
50W-70W N OF 25N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25W-50W. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 12N AND
EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

$$
GR



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