[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 2.5N30W 2N40W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 23W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 12W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND BREEZE CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE/STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 15-20 KTS...AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...COVER THE GULF EAST OF
90W...WHILE SE WINDS ARE FOUND WEST OF THERE. UNDER THE EAST
WINDS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
OF FLORIDA. THE SE FLOW IS POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IN MEXICO...PRODUCING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OUT TO 70-90 NM OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND WILL BE NEAR 30N70W IN 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
TOMORROW AND TO THE SE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE NW GULF TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT ENE WINDS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN W OF 70W...
WHILE 10-15 KT TRADES ARE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE PUERTO RICO NEWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC. GUSTY WINDS AND NUMEROUS BANDS OF SHOWERS LEFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT OVER THE ENCHANTED ISLAND. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL COVER THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. OTHER
PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT NEAR PUERTO RICO
WILL DRIFT SE OVER N PORTION OF TROPICAL NORTH ATLC THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL EDGE
CLOSER TO THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE NE CORNER WHILE ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE IS OVER PANAMA
AND INLAND SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N49W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG
25N55W TO NE PUERTO RICO. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...THERE ARE WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N34W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE
ATLANTIC S OF 32N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
50W-70-W N OF 25N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25W-50W. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 12N AND
EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

$$
GR


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