[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272311
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 3N40W 2N45W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 31W-37W AND 42W-49W. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1037 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND IS SUPPLYING HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 15-20 KTS...AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...COVER THE AREA EAST OF 93W...WITH SE
WINDS WEST OF THERE. THE SE FLOW IMPINGING ON THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IS POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE E SLOPES
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BE
NEAR 31N74W IN 24 HOURS. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO SOUTHERLY
IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN THE NW GULF TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND A LOW
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
AND CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NEWARD OVER
MEXICO. WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF WITH DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT
SOUTH OF 25N...AND SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTH OF
25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA...DUE TO A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS NEAR THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO. OTHER PATCHES OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
WSW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY W OF 72W. THE COLD FRONT
NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION
TOMORROW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 84W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER INLAND S
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N48W 24N58W 19N67W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N45W
27N53W. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE ARE
WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. FARTHER EAST...A 1023
MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC S OF 32N. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 50W-74W N OF 25N. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25W-50W WITH AN DEEP LAYER TROUGH N OF 20N E
OF 25W AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N11W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER
LEVEL AIR IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC N OF
12N...EXCEPT ABOVE THE COLD FRONT KEEPING NEARLY ALL OF THE
ATLANTIC...EXCEPT FOR THE ITCZ...RAIN FREE. THE DRIEST AIR
EXTENDS FROM 53W EASTWARD TO INLAND OVER AFRICA BETWEEN 14N-23N.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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