[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271818
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 2N25W 3N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 12W-16W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
34W-38W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 37N80W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N98W.  E TO SE
SURFACE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS ALSO DOTS THE GULF.  OF NOTE...10-15 KT EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO IS POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS PRODUCING OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...W OF 94W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
N OF 26N AND SUBSIDENCE S OF 26N.  EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE 24 HOUR POINT WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT NE SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF
75W...WHILE 10-15 KT TRADES ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT...HOWEVER...MORE THAN THE
AVERAGE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE...OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA...N OF 17N
BETWEEN 66W-77W DUE TO A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT THAT JUST REACHES
NE HISPANIOLA.  SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND
THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 85W-89W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE SEA WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WHILE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER INLAND S
AMERICA.   EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ESPECIALLY S OF 17N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N50W 24N60W 19N70W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
DELINEATED BY A CLOUD LINE IS ALONG 30N50W 23N60W.  A 1024 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N36W.  A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE
NE PORTION OF THE AREA ENTERING NEAR 32N10W AND EXTENDS SW TO
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N E OF 54W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE
ATLC N OF 12N W OF 30W WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 32W-50W.  OVER THE E ATLC...BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS N OF 16N E OF 33W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA


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