[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 5N15W 2N26W 3N43W 1N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 7W-44W AND OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 44W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES CLIPPING THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM W
CUBA NEAR 22N83W N ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE US NEAR
32N82W GIVING THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. THE RETURN FLOW OVER THE W
GULF IS POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO W OF 93W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED
BY A 1039 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER COLOMBIA NEAR
11N74W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N83W GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W
UPPER FLOW. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BUT WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N EXCEPT IN THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10.5N
FROM 80W-83W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SOME RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE IN
STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N E OF 54W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE ATLC NEAR
32N50W ALONG 25N60W TO 22N66W WHERE IT DISSIPATES IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. DUE TO THE UPPER DRY AIR ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT N OF 23N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE
ENTIRE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE N COAST
OF CUBA. SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N48W NE TO BEYOND 32N38W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE ATLC N OF 12N W OF 30W WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 32W-50W. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR
27N36W COVERING THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT TO THE AFRICAN COAST IS
KEEPING THE AREA SHOWER FREE. OVER THE E ATLC...BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 16N E OF 33W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA ENTERING
NEAR 32N12W SW TO JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N18W THEN
NW OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA N OF
30N.

$$
WALLACE



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