[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N21W 2N40W 1N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 6W-14W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 4N FROM 40W-48W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-40W AND ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING NE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
CLIPPING THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM W CUBA
NEAR 23N83W NNW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W GIVING
THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF AND WITH THE RETURN FLOW OVER THE W
GULF IS POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION
JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER COLOMBIA NEAR
10N72W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N83W GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W
UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BUT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N EXCEPT IN THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11.5N
FROM 80W-83.5W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE
CARIBBEAN AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER ARE IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N E OF 55W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE ATLC NEAR
32N53W ALONG 25N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. DUE TO
THE UPPER DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...ONLY
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO
80W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA. SHARP UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N54W NE TO BEYOND
32N43W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS
THE ATLC N OF 14N W OF 35W WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 35W-50W. THIS COUPLED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 26N36W COVERING THE ATLC E
OF THE FRONT TO THE AFRICAN COAST IS KEEPING THE AREA SHOWER
FREE. OVER THE E ATLC...BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 18N E
OF 30W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLIPS
THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA ENTERING BETWEEN THE CANARY AND
MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N15W SW TO 30N20W THEN NW OUT OF THE
REGION NEAR 32N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE
FRONT TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA N OF 30N.

$$
WALLACE


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