[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262309
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W 3N50W.
THE ITCZ IS VERY ACTIVE WEST OF 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-53W. EAST
OF 35W...ISOLATED SMALL WEAK SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OHIO IS CAUSING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT...AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
EASTERN GULF.  LIGHTER EASTERLIES ARE IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH
PLENTY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TURNING THE WINDS TO SOUTHERLIES IN THE WESTERN
GULF TOMORROW. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE NW GULF LATE SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ENTER THE GULF ON SUN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WSW TO WLY WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE GULF WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM S CUBA
NEAR 20N77W TO THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT HAS DISSIPATED AND LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TYPICAL
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE MOST ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
MOISTURE IS FROM THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD TO 14N
BETWEEN 71-74W. TRADE WINDS NEAR 20 KTS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY TOMORROW IN
PUERTO RICO AS NEARBY MOISTURE COMBINES WITH THE REMNANT FRONT
WITH IS NOW IN THE SE BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EAST OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N54W 26N63W 21N75W. NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AREA...ONLY
BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS N OF 30N. FARTHER
EAST...A STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
26N36W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
EXISTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRY AIR ALOFT/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF 55W
NORTH OF 15N WITH THE DRIEST AIR FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 25W-55W.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING INTO THE AREA ALONG 20W WHICH SHOULD
BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE
IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...UPPER RIDGING LIES ALONG THE ITCZ
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION S OF 15N E
OF 55W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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