[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261704
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 2N26W 3N40W 3N50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF AIXS BETWEEN
35W-52W WITH A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ENTERING FRENCH GUIANA.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEN 25W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
20-25 KT WINDS COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF WITH A
1035 MB HIGH SETTLING INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS.  LIGHTER
WINDS ARE IN THE WESTERN GULF AND PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MOVING IN.  MID/UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING HOUSTON BRINGING
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF
92W.  THE EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE BRIEF AS IT SHOOT NE
INTO THE E-CENTRAL USA.  THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT FOR SUN.  MOSTLY WLY WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE GULF WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS E OF 89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED IN THE W CARIBBEAN LEAVING JUST
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS NW OF A LINE FROM S CUBA
NEAR 20N78W TO THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 15N72W ZIPPING
WESTWARD QUICKLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE MARKEDLY TOMORROW IN PUERTO RICO AS NEARBY MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH THE REMNANT OF THE FRONT WITH IS NOW IN THE SE
BAHAMAS.  PASSING SHOWERS IN SEASONABLE TRADES SEEM TO BE THE
RULE UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTROLS THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC N OF 25N.  FIRST TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 26N67W INTO THE SE
BAHAMAS.  THERE ISN'T MUCH WEATHER ALONG WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT
FOR BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS N OF 28N AS UPPER
SUBSIDENCE IS THE RULE IN THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC.   UPPER
RIDGING IS ALONG ABOUT 42W IN THE CENTRAL ATC WITH ASSOCIATED
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 26N37W IN THE REGION.  RIDGE AXIS RUNS FROM SW
WESTERN SAHARA INTO THE HIGH THEN WSW TO 21N64W N OF PUERTO
RICO.  20-25 KT TRADES COVER THE TROPICAL ATLC... CONTINUING THE
RECENT TREND OF STRONG NE TRADES OBSERVED THIS MONTH.  AN UPPER
TROUGH IS DIPPING INTO THE AREA ALONG 20W WHICH SHOULD BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY.  OTHERWISE IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC... UPPER RIDGING LIES ALONG THE ITCZ WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION S OF 15N E OF
55W.  THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF
ITCZ ESPECIALLY W OF 25W.  STRONG CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
RIDGING IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS CAUSING VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 25W-65W.

$$
BLAKE

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