[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N32W 3N44W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-43W AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 47W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES AND NE MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR LAREDO TEXAS.
BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NW TO OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
AND TEXAS APPROACHING THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A 10 1029 MB HIGH OVER NE MEXICO.
MODERATE/STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF
THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 18N W
OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER BELIZE AND HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER SW UPPER FLOW WITH MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 83W GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 67W-72W
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N E OF 60W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N61W TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N74W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. DUE TO THE UPPER
DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE W ATLC...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
FRONT N OF 27N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N48W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE ATLC FROM 16N-27N WITH THE DRIEST AIR
OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 45W-58W. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N35W
COVERING THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT TO THE AFRICAN COAST IS KEEPING
THE AREA SHOWER FREE. OVER THE E ATLC...BROAD DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS N OF 23N E OF 35W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE



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