[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N38W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-45W AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 48W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW US INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR DURANGO MEXICO. BROAD RIDGE COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW
YUCATAN PENINSULA NW TO OVER TEXAS. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER MEXICO INTO S TEXAS AND AS WELL AS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF TEXAS S OF GALVESTON AND MEXICO N OF
VERACRUZ. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1033 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. MODERATE/STRONG NE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER SW UPPER FLOW WITH
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
66W-72W WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N E OF 62W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS
BERMUDA OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N76W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN
NEAR 22N80W. DUE TO THE UPPER DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE
W ATLC...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 26N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N50W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE
ATLC FROM 16N-27N WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC
FROM 45W-60W. THIS COUPLED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 27N36W COVERING THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT
TO THE AFRICAN COAST IS KEEPING THE AREA SHOWER FREE. OVER THE E
ATLC...BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 40W TO INLAND
OVER AFRICA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INLAND OVER
AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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