[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 4N24W 3N35W 3N46W 2N52W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 80 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-37W. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
43W-47W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND OVER BRAZIL FROM 2S-EQ
BETWEEN 47W-51W...AND OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL US IS BUILDING A
RIDGE TO THE SE INTO THE GULF. COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER MOST OF
THE GULF...PARTICULARLY W OF 90W. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDS ALONG THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE ACROSS US...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NE...THEN E OVER THE GULF...BRINGING SOME MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SOUTH MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN US AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-68W
THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG WESTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A BAND OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN NEAR
THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ENE
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS FEATURE MAY REACH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO ON FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN NEAR THE
EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA EXTENDS ENE INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE
AREA FROM 16N-27N EAST OF 65W...WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 50W-65W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. ONLY SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE SEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC...EAST OF 65W. JETSTREAM  WITH WINDS
OF 70 TO 80 KT LIES ALONG 15-16N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE COAST OF AFRICA. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF
16N.

$$
GR




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