[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N22W 1N40W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO ACROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER THE THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES HAS SHIFTED N LEAVING THE GULF UNDER BROAD UPPER
RIDGE GIVING THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING ALONG 30N87W TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NW
ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W ALONG 26N92W INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS LEAVING THE GULF UNDER
MODERATE/STRONG N WINDS AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE SW GULF
WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 19N82W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS CUBA AND W
ATLC INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 21N84W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W AND IS GENERATING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W OF 83W TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 82W GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NE ACROSS
CUBA TO BEYOND BERMUDA COVING THE AREA INCLUDING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS
THE AREA FROM 15N-30N W OF 30W WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 40W-70W INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE AREA SHOWER FREE. OVER THE E
ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 16N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA. THE ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE REGION
NEAR 33N23W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 27N21W TO
22N25W. JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N50W ALONG 17N25W THEN N TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA NEAR 22N16W.

$$
WALLACE


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