[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N17W 2N27W 2N45W EQ51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM 2N FROM
1W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT FROM AN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N OF THE REGION REMAINS
ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1015 MB LOW OVER SW GEORGIA
INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N85W TO 27N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 17N95W WITH A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NW ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N83W
ALONG 25N92W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS LEAVING THE GULF UNDER MODERATE/STRONG N WINDS AND
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE SW GULF WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 18N83W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS CUBA AND W
ATLC INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 22N86W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W
AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF
83W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 82W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NE ACROSS
CUBA TO BEYOND 32N61W COVING THE AREA INCLUDING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS
THE AREA FROM 15N-30N W OF 30W WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 40W-70W INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE AREA SHOWER FREE. OVER THE E
ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 17N E OF 35W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA. THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N19W TO JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N19W THEN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH TO N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N24W. A
SECOND COLD FRONT...A SECOND SURGE EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N30W TO
28N40W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR...NO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE PRESENT.
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
FROM 15N35W NE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net