[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N24W 2N35W 1.5N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 2O0 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-5.5N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
ALABAMA ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF TO VERACRUZ
MEXICO ALONG 30N89W 25N93W 21N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
GULF. S-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON WED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES MEXICO AND THE GULF...CAUSED BY THE
CIRCULATIONS OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS THEN
CONTINUES NE ACROSS SE U.S.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 85-86W IS
PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
16N-21N WEST OF 83W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL...EASTERN HONDURAS AND NE
NICARAGUA. FARTHER EAST...TYPICAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STREAMING
WESTWARD DRIVEN BY MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 20-25
KTS. THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA...PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE AREA
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 35N-57W
HAS CAUSED SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 30W.
A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N26W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N23W 23N25W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. FAIR
AND QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TOMORROW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF
40W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA
FROM 15N-30N W OF 40W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS ALONG 23-25W N OF 20N. A TROPICAL JET OF
80-100 KT ALONG 14N-50W 16N30W AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF 15N FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
GR


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