[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 2N30W 3N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
16W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SMALL 1015 MB LOW IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N96W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO N MEXICO
ALONG 25N97W 25N100W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO S LOUISIANA TO 30N91W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALL INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
SURFACE WINDS S OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT
FROM THE SE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A SMALL TROUGH
IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...WHILE A RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE N GULF
N OF 25N.  EXPECT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH BACK DOWN OVER
THE NW GULF AS A COLD FRONT AND EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA TO
TAMPICO MEXICO AT THE 24 HOUR POINT...WITH SOME CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A
CONVERGENCE LINE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 15N70W 17N75W 15N85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-17N
BETWEEN 77W-80W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N
BETWEEN 82W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MOISTURE ABOVE THE CONVERGENCE LINE AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  EXPECT...THE TRADEWINDS TO REMAIN
STRONG WITH CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MOST
PREVALENT W OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N64W.  A 1013
MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N28W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW TO 27N27W 22N30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W-50W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED E OF 30W...AND IN THE
TROPICS S OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net