[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N10W 3N20W 2N38W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
1N TO 3N BETWEEN 4W AND 8W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN
15W AND 27W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 31W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO
6N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE AIRMASS AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA HAS CHANGED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...NOW TO A WARM FRONT. IT WAS A COLD FRONT TWELVE
TO EIGHTEEN HOURS AGO...BUT IT HAS BEEN PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS. IT IS HUGGING THE COAST NOW FROM
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS NEAR 28N96W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHING
ALL THE CLOUDS IN AN ANTICYCLONIC DIRECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOUND FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W AND
96W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 25N.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON TOP OF EVERYTHING AT THE SURFACE IS
ANTICYCLONIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHWEST OF 21N95W 25N91W 28N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 11 FT
TO 15 FT ARE FOUND IN AND FORECAST TO BE IN THE AREA FROM 11N
TO 17N...MOSTLY EAST OF 80W. THE COMPARATIVELY FASTER WIND
SPEEDS WHICH NOW ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
ARE IN DIRECT PROPORTION TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE...FROM 33N54W TO BERMUDA TO 32N76W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N85W. GENERALLY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLOUDS THAT
ARE MOVING WITH THESE TRADE WINDS. SPECIFICALLY...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE 15N67W 16N70W 16N74W 16N77W 16N79W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE AREA IN BETWEEN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND
CUBA...AND IT CONTINUES TO ITS APEX IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...STARTS
OUT IN THE AREA OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N...IT CONTINUES ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
TO THE AREA OF GUYANA/SURINAME/FRENCH GUIANA...AND MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY EXPANDS AS IT EXITS
CONTINENTAL SOUTH AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N61W...
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
THE DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 18N70W 16N60W 20N40W 29N31W.
THE 22/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT
THE MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 45W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS AROUND ONE 1031 MB HIGH CENTER ON TOP OF BERMUDA...
AND A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 33N54W. THE RIDGE GOES TO 32N76W
AND THEN TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W. A WEAKENING DEEP
LAYER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH ITS
SOUTHERNMOST POINT NEAR 23N43W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 31N33W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
15N56W 18N40W 29N24W...TO THE ITCZ. A 1012 MB EASTERN ATLANTIC
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD NEAR 33N26W.
A TROUGH SPIRALS OUTWARD FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 30N20W...
CURVING TO 22N26W. THIS SYSTEM IS WHAT REMAINS FROM WHAT WAS
AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N57W
14N40W 20N25W 25N17W.

$$
MT



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