[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N10W 5N16W 3N30W 3N40W...CURVING TOWARD THE EQUATOR AT
50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W...AND FROM 3N TO
5N BETWEEN 22W AND 29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN
30W AND 42W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL SMALL
CELLS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...3N3W 2N6W 1N7W 2N10W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM TWELVE HOURS AGO HAS BECOME
STATIONARY DURING THAT TIME...FINDING ITSELF STRETCHING FROM
A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS NEAR 30N89W TO 28N92W TO 28N96W INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
94W/95W FROM 21N TO 26N. THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH ARE NORTH OF 21N WEST OF 90W ARE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
RIDGE...WHICH ORIGINATES WITH THE ATLANTIC 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 34N52W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON TOP OF EVERYTHING AT
THE SURFACE IS ANTICYCLONIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHWEST OF 21N95W 25N91W 28N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 11 FT TO
15 FT ARE FOUND IN AND FORECAST TO BE IN THE AREA FROM 11N TO
17N...MOSTLY EAST OF 80W. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 34N52W. GENERALLY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING WITH THESE TRADE WINDS.
SPECIFICALLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE AREAS OF THE FASTER WIND SPEEDS
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 83W...AND IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS MOVING ACROSS BELIZE. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS SITTING NEAR 16N58W FROM TWELVE HOURS AGO APPEARS TO
HAVE DISSIPATED. THE TROUGH WHICH ACCOMPANIED THIS LOW
CENTER...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...IS NOT EVIDENT
AT THIS TIME EITHER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHWESTWARD TO THE AREA IN
BETWEEN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND CUBA...AND IT CONTINUES TO ITS
APEX IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...STARTS OUT IN THE AREA OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N...IT CONTINUES ACROSS
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO THE AREA OF GUYANA/SURINAME/FRENCH
GUIANA...AND MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY
EXPANDS AS IT EXITS CONTINENTAL SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE AREAS OF THE
FASTER WIND SPEEDS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 83W...AND IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS MOVING ACROSS BELIZE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N60W...
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. THE DRY
AIR IS NORTH OF 18N70W 16N60W 20N40W 29N31W. THE 22/0300 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT THE MIDDLE LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 45W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS AROUND THE
1032 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 34N52W. THE RIDGE GOES TO 31N72W AND
THEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W. A WEAKENING DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH ITS SOUTHERNMOST
POINT NEAR 23N45W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 32N33W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
16N60W 20N40W 29N25W...TO THE ITCZ. A 1015 MB EASTERN ATLANTIC
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEAR 33N22W. A TROUGH SPIRALS
OUTWARD FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 30N20W...CURVING TO 22N26W. THIS
SYSTEM IS WHAT REMAINS FROM WHAT WAS AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N57W 14N43W 18N29W 24N18W.

$$
MT


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