[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N16W 3N30W 5N45W 3N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
1N21W ACROSS THE AXIS TO 5N22W AND WITHIN 30/45 NM OF 4.5N FROM
23W-31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO
MEXICO CLIPPING THE NW GULF. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE GULF ACROSS E LOUISIANA WHERE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS
FORMING...ALONG 28N93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST S OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF IS
BEGINNING TO RETURN N AS IT WAS FORECASTED TO DO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N W OF 85W AND WITHIN
45 NM OF 94W FROM 22N-26N. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SE UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 13N E OF 80W TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH E OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N72W AND COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO...W
ATLC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR COVERS THE W ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS AND INCLUDES THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF HISPANIOLA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N56W WSW TO THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
20N FROM 33W-54W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE N
PORTION OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 26W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS
OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ALONG 20N35W TO A PEAK AT 22N24W TO INLAND
OVER AFRICA NEAR 19N16W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1015 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N21W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S
TO 24N25W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM E OF THE FRONT...AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA S OF 28N.

$$
WALLACE


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