[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N10W 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W 4N44W 2N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 6W AND 21W...AND FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN
28W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 21W AND 28W...FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN
40W AND 43W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NOW STRETCHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. A TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF
25N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N95.5W AND 28N89.5W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THIS
FRONT AT THE MOMENT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TOMORROW WITH RAIN
NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL HANG AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO VERACRUZ TO THE MEXICO BORDER WITH
TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 10 FT TO
14 FT ARE FOUND IN AND FORECAST TO BE IN THE AREA FROM 11N TO
17N...MOSTLY EAST OF 80W. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 34N60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING WITH THESE TRADE WINDS. A PESKY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS SITTING NEAR 16N58W AND
REFUSES TO MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.,.KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS...EASILY DISSIPATING WITH TIME...ARE OR WERE
FOUND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM
THE 16N58W LOW CENTER TO 16N64W AND TO 15N70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
IN CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH OF 10N LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A FORMING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A 1032 MB SURFACE
HIGH NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N60W...CAUSING BRISK WINDS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N39W TO 27N48W AND DISAPPEARING MORE AND MORE AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WEST OF 50W FINDS ITSELF UNDER UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND DEEP AND STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT NOW IS
NEAR 31N45W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N45W TO
30N48W TO 28N52W. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
A DEEP-LAYERED LOW IN THE NE ATLC NEAR 31N21W ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE 1015 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N27W.
THE OCCLUSION-TO-COLD FRONT COMING OUT OF THE 31N27W LOW CENTER
IS WEAKENING NOW...ALONG 31N27W 32N24W 30N22W...AND THEN COLD
AND DISSIPATING 30N22W 26N24W 23N26W. A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD BAND
APPEARS ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THIS FRONT.
PRECIPITATION MAY EXIST FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W.
FAST ZONAL FLOW IS EAST OF THE TROUGH WITH A STRONG JET CORE
FROM 18N40W 18N30W ACROSS THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER JET. TRADE WINDS ARE
FAIRLY WEAK EAST OF 40W DUE TO THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW BUT ARE
STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE WEST OF 40W WITH THE STRONG HIGH
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

$$
MT


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