[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N15W 3N30W 4N42W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 3.5N28W
2.5N32W 4.5N40W AND FROM 1.5N-4N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 40W-52W.  ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
1.5N-5N BETWEEN 20W-28W.  A FEW TSTMS ARE ALONG 50W S OF 3N AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF 7.5N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS NOSED INTO THE REGION.. AT 9 UTC FROM NEAR LAKE
CHARLES TO JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON TO SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR
27N97W THEN WESTWARD INTO THE SIERRA MADRES OF MEXICO.  WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT IN THE NW
GULF.  FARTHER TO THE E... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM EXTREME SE
LOUISIANA TO S ALABAMA IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
NEAR AND 90 NM NW OF A LINE FROM PENSACOLA TO 28.5N90W.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA S OF WEST PALM
BEACH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT..  SELY
WINDS COVER THE REGION BUT ARE TURNING A LITTLE MORE ELY AND
SLACKENING.  OTHERWISE BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NW OF A
LINE FROM 24N97.5W TO NEAR DESTIN FLORIDA.  PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE GULF WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NW
SIDE OF A MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE W ATLC.  FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL FROM S MS TO NE MEXICO TOMORROW WITH RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HANG AROUND THE NW GULF THRU EARLY MON WITH PLENTY
OF RAIN AND TSTMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH 20-30 KT TRADES OVER THE
AREA E OF 76W WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.. DIMINISHING A LITTLE IN
THE W CARIBBEAN.  WITH A STRONG HIGH IN THE W ATLC... 25-30 KT
TRADES ARE FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA E OF 80W WITH
PLENTY OF FAST-MOVING TRADE WIND SHOWERS.  PESKY MID/UPPER LOW
IS SITTING NEAR 15N58W AND REFUSES TO MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN..
KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER OUT OF THE
AREA.  HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM
15.5N-17.5N E OF 63.5W DUE TO MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW CONTROLS THE AREA E OF 70W WHILE MID/UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS W OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALMOST EVERYWHERE
ALOFT.  THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY LATE TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS.  THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE IN CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N LATER
TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A FORMING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A 1032 MB SURFACE
HIGH NE OF BERMUDA CAUSING BRISK WINDS ESPECIALLY S OF 25N E OF
THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING.  WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 32N41W TO
27N48W... DRAGGING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
ALONG 31N46W TO 29N53W.  ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A DEEP-LAYERED LOW IN THE NE ATLC NEAR 31N27W...1011
MB AT THE SURFACE... WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE LOW TO
31N24W 30N22W 28N23W BECOMING A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT SW
TO 22N28W.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 19W
AND THE COLD FRONT WITH A BAND OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS COVER MOST OF
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.. THICKEST BETWEEN
35W-35W.. THINNING OUT CONSIDERABLY W OF 70W.  UPPER TROUGH
ALONG 21N48W TO THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS CONTINUING TO
CAUSE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE TROPICAL ATLC.  ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITH OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 5.5N-18N BETWEEN
40W-57W.  FAST ZONAL FLOW IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH A STRONG JET
CORE FROM 18N40W 18N30W ACROSS THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDES INTO SW
MAURITANIA.  PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER JET.  TRADE WINDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK E OF
40W DUE TO THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW BUT ARE STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE W
OF 40W WITH THE STRONG HIGH NE OF BERMUDA.

$$
BLAKE


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