[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N25W 4N40W 4N52W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1.5N-5N BETWEEN 10W-20W
AND 26W-40W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN A LARGE AREA FROM 1N-10N
FROM 40W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SELY WINDS COVER THE REGION...STRONGEST IN THE NE PORTION NEAR
20 KT AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  A COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING WITH TSTMS NEAR THE LA/TX BORDER AND SOME
PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS ARE IN THE N-CENTRAL GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN
87W-90W FROM THE REMNANTS OF A WARM FRONT.  OTHERWISE
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 22.5N97.5W TO
THE AL/FL BORDER.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE
GULF WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NW SIDE OF A MID/UPPER HIGH
OVER THE W ATLC.  FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FROM S MS TO NE MEXICO
TOMORROW WITH RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND HANG AROUND THE
NW GULF THRU EARLY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADES ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA... NEAR 30 KT IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  QUIKSCAT INDICATES THE GALE HAS ENDED BUT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE NW OF COLOMBIA.  WITH A STRONG
HIGH IN THE W ATLC... 25-30 KT TRADES ARE FORECAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA E OF 80W WITH PLENTY OF FAST-MOVING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS.  A PESKY MID/UPPER LOW IS SITTING NEAR 15N58W AND
REFUSES TO MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN.. KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER OUT OF THE AREA.  TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW CONTROLS THE AREA E OF 70W WHILE MID/UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS W OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALMOST EVERYWHERE ALOFT.
 WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE
UPPER LOW BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS.  THE
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE IN CENTRAL AMERICA N OF
10N LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A FORMING
NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A 1032 MB SURFACE
HIGH NE OF BERMUDA CAUSING BRISK WINDS ESPECIALLY S OF 25N E OF
THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING.  WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 32N43W TO
28N50W... DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N48W TO
30N52W.  ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A
DEEP-LAYERED LOW NEAR 3127W...1010 MB AT THE SURFACE... WITH A
COLD FRONT FROM 31N25W 26N25W 23N29W IN THE E ATLC.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTM ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 20W AND
THE COLD FRONT.  SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS COVER MOST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.. THICKEST BETWEEN
35W-35W.. THINNING OUT CONSIDERABLY W OF 70W.  UPPER TROUGH
ALONG 21N50W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS CONTINUING TO CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE TROPICAL ATLC.  ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 5N-19N BETWEEN 35W-57W.
FAST ZONAL FLOW IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH A STRONG JET CORE FROM
17N44W 18N30W ACROSS THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDES INTO SW
MAURITANIA.  PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER JET.  TRADE WINDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK E OF
35W DUE TO THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW BUT ARE STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE W
OF 35W WITH THE STRONG HIGH NE OF BERMUDA.

$$
BLAKE

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