[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 3N30W 5N40W 4N52W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 40W-42W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ENTIRE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
15-20 KT E-SE RETURN FLOW WITH
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAILS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE W ATLANTIC.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 88W-90W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 90W.  MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  EXPECT...MORE
CLOUDINESS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DRIFT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM THE S WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA PREDOMINATELY HAS 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH
PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
MORE SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO
GUATEMALA.  A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA UNTIL 21/1200 UTC.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 10N AND W OF 65W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N58W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 8N-21N BETWEEN 50W-65W.  A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 50W-60W DUE TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT
ADDITIONAL TRADEWIND SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N54W
30N60W 30N70W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  A 1008
MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N39W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 31N25W 28N25W 24N30W 23N45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 28N-33N
BETWEEN 18W-25W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 75W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N58W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 8N-21N
BETWEEN 50W-65W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N25W MOVING E.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-37N
BETWEEN 13W-35W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
5N-20N E OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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