[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N11W 3N20W 3N30W 5N37W 4N50W 4N53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
7N12W 5N20W 5N30W 7N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND
43W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W...AND FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DISSIPATING WARM FRONT FROM 20/0600 UTC CONTINUED ON THE
SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS AT 20/1200 UTC...BUT IT WAS DROPPED FROM
THE ANALYSIS AT 20/1500 UTC. IT APPEARS THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE
BLASTING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA IN WHICH WHATEVER USED TO
RESEMBLE THE FRONT HAD BEEN LOCATED. THE SURFACE RIDGE NOW IS
PUSHING ALL THE INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE MASSES OF MOSTLY LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS IN AN ANTICYCLONIC
FASHION. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS.
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF...PASSING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TOWARD FLORIDA. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF SHOULD HEAD TOWARD LOUISIANA AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
REGION EARLY TOMORROW. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK OUT
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH PASSING
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS RETREATING FROM THE
GULF AS DEEPER MOISTURE ENTERS FROM THE SOUTH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT NOW AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W WINDS FOR WINDS FROM NORTHEAST
TO EAST...IN THE RANGE OF 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS TO 15 FT. THIS
AREA OF GALE FORCE WIND IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT
EAST WINDS TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS EVERYWHERE ELSE...
AT SPEEDS OF 20 KT TO 30 KT WITH SEAS FROM 12 TO 16 FT.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE TRADEWIND CLOUDS...MOSTLY EAST
OF 80W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD BEEN NOTED IN NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. THAT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALONG 58W/59W  SOUTH
OF 19N. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST AND IF THE PRECIPITATION MAINTAINS
ITSELF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE REACHING 60W FROM BARBADOS
NORTHWARD. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER PRECIPITATION IS FOUND
FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 58W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 19N53W 17N56W 14N63W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY.  WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND OVER A BIGGER PART OF THE AREA EAST OF 80W WITH
PLENTY OF SHOWERS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 29N70W. A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. A
DISSIPATING WARM FRONT CURVES FROM 27N77W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W...CUTTING ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PARTS OF THE FRONT THAT
WERE STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING WARM HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
20/1500 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND
NORTH OF 26N80W 24N70W 24N60W 31N50W. A SURFACE 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N65W. A RIDGE RUNS FROM THIS HIGH
CENTER TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA. THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
A LOW CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 30N28W. THIS IS A
DEEP LAYER SYSTEM WITH A SURFACE 1014 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 33N28W.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 30N27W 27N30W 24N40W
TO 24N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 27N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W.
THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKER IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH IS ALONG 19N53W 17N56W 14N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 19N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN
53W AND 58W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 20N
34W AND 55W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEING PUSHED INTO THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS INTO WEST AFRICA. TRADEWINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER THAN MOST OF THE WINDS FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PENETRATING THE
REGION AND SHOULD REMAIN LOW THRU THE WEEKEND

$$
MT

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