[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5.5N11W 2N24W 3N35W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 22W-25W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR
27.5N-96.5W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 25N97W 25N100W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO S LOUISIANA TO 31N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALL INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS
WHILE A NARROW LINE OF TSTMS IS OVER THE GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE WINDS E OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE
PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT FROM THE S-SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 87-88W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. EXPECT...THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH BACK DOWN OVER THE NW GULF AS A COLD
FRONT AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL BLEW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC NORTH OF THE AREA. A CONVERGENCE LINE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 17N77W 17N80W 16N84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE S OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
76W-84W...AND OVER NE NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO SEEN OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND...THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE. GUSTY WINDS OF
32 KT WERE REPORTED AT THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. THE TRADEWINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG AND GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FRESH EAST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
22N29W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.
WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED E OF 30W...AND IN THE TROPICS S OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
GR



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