[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 2N30W 5N48W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 22W-29W...
AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 25N80W 20N86W.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.  E-SE RETURN FLOW WITH
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVING N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR
THE SE CORNER E OF 90W AND S OF 24N WHERE BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
NOTED.  EXPECT...MORE CLOUDINESS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DRIFT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE S WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WARM FRONT IS OVER W CUBA ...THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N80W 18N87W DRIFTING N.  OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
N OF 10N AND W OF 70W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W DRIFTING W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
8N-23N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-20N
BETWEEN 50W-60W DUE TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA EXCEPT NEAR THE WARM
FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N66W
28N74W 25N80W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE
FRONT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG
32N31W 29N32W 27N44W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 30W-31W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM E CUBA NE TO BEYOND 32N53W.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 8N-23N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N33W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS FROM 20N-45N BETWEEN 22W-42W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N E OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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