[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200505
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N30W 5N45W 3N52W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 12W-15W AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 38W-52W WITH STRONGER STORMS STRADDLING THE
EQUATOR W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM FRONT IS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NE TIP OF YUCATAN
WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE
FRONT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PLUS A FEW TSTMS OVER YUCATAN. ALONG
25N80W 20N86W.  E TO SE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COVER THE GULF WITH LESS CLOUDINESS IN THE FAR NE AND SW
PORTION.  THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
 DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF SHOULD HEAD TOWARD
LOUISIANA AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION ABOUT THIS TIME TOMORROW.  THE
FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FROM S MISSISSIPPI TO S TEXAS LATE SAT
THEN BACK OUT OF THE AREA ON SUN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
PASSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION..  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SE CORNER E OF 93W AND S OF 25N WHERE BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WARM FRONT HAS LEFT THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER TSTMS
NEAR YUCATAN.  20-25 KT TRADES CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA E OF 80W... LIGHTER IN THE W CARIBBEAN.  PASSING
TRADEWIND SHOWERS DOT THE REGION WITH SAN ANDRES RECENTLY
REPORTING A SHOWER AND A HEAVIER BATCH MOVING THRU PUERTO RICO.
MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 16N59W IS MOVING INTO THE AREA.. CAUSING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARDS.  OTHERWISE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 10N AND W OF 70W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SAVE N OF 20N W OF 80W.  THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAIN MOSTLY
S OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N66W THRU
THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONT FOR 120-180 NM. 1029 MB IS
E OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N50W KEEPING THE FRESH TRADES IN THE
AREA.  FARTHER E... LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 22N BETWEEN
23W-37W DIPPING INTO THE AREA.  COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N30W
27N34W 26N45W WITH ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 26W-29W
MOSTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 50W.  THE OTHER BIG WEATHER-MAKER IS THE
MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 16N59W WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 52W-58W.  OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM
4N-19N BETWEEN 38W-58W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 40W-47W N OF THE ITCZ.  HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE BEING ADVECTED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO W AFRICA.  TRADES ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN MOST OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS IN THE E
ATLC DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PENETRATING THE REGION.

$$
BLAKE

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net