[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W 3N36W 5N45W 4N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-26W AND BETWEEN
43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS TO A 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 88W.  THESE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AS THE RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLIES HAVE
BECOME ESTABLISHED WEST OF 91W. BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PROGRESSED WESTWARD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
BACKING INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW NEAR
TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO HEAD NEAR SE
LOUISIANA FOR LATE FRI AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN
THE AREA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXISTS ACROSS THE GULF. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRIEST AIR WITHIN 100 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE MEXICAN COASTLINE NEAR 22N98W
TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE AREA LATE
FRI BUT MAKE LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE SE USA.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
AS OF 19/1500 UTC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA SOUTHWARD TO NE
HONDURAS ALONG 31N69W STATIONARY TO 27N74W THEN ADVANCES
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT FROM THERE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN.  A
BAND OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-85W.  UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS LEFT THE FRONT
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS PUSHING IT WESTWARD. THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY 20-25 KT TRADES
WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVING
WESTWARD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN WEST OF 60W NORTH OF 10N. DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT ABOVE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LOW IS EAST OF 60W MOVING
WESTWARD.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 38N48W
AND A 1028 MB HIGH AND 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE
EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA IS BETWEEN THESE RIDGES. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE LOW AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N34W
29N46W BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 16N58W MOVING W 5-10
KT PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
52W-60W.  OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE S OF
20N BETWEEN 40W-58W.  THE UPPER LOW HAS A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION AS A TROUGH ALIGNED NW-SE ALONG 21N59W 17N57W 13N50W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 27N ALONG 33W/34W
AND A MID/UPPER HIGH IS IN THE NE ATLC NEAR 27N21W WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N E OF 26W.  ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF 45W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net