[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 5N45W 4N52W.
ISOLATED CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 2N13.5W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W..WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 30W-40W... AND IN A BOX FROM EQ-7N
BETWEEN 43W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1030 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SE GEORGIA COVERING THE AREA.
SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S
GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-95W.. BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD THE N
AS RETURN FLOW SLYS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS.  IN
ADDITION CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE RETURN FLOW W OF 93W.  AS
A RESULT OF A FRONT BACKING UP TOWARD FLORIDA...OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER EXTREME S
FLORIDA.  MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE IN EARNEST TOMORROW NEAR
TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO HEAD NEAR SE
LOUISIANA FOR LATE FRI.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...FLOW IS RATHER
ZONAL IN THE W GULF WITH MOSTLY WLY WINDS OVER THE W GULF
COMBINING WITH W TO SW WINDS OVER THE E GULF.  EXTREMELY DRY AIR
ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR PICTURES IN A CONVERGENT AREA
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TOP 22.5N100W IN MEXICO.  THE
NEXT FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE AREA LATE FRI BUT MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SE USA.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
AS OF 19/0900 UTC...A FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO
CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ALONG 31N29W 28N72W STATIONARY TO
22N80W THEN ADVANCES WESTWARD AS A WEAK FRONT FROM TO THE BAY
ISLANDS NEAR HONDURAS.  A BAND OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF 18N85.5W.  UPPER ENERGY
HAS LEFT THE FRONT WITH THE TRADES NOW PUSHING IT WESTWARD.
NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS TODAY.  THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH PATCHY
SHOWERS... TAKING THE FORM OF A TON OF SMALL SHOWERS ON PUERTO
RICO RADAR.  STRONGER WINDS... GALE FORCE... ARE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF
OF MEXICO...THE W ATLANTIC...AND CARIBBEAN SEA...N OF 10N
BETWEEN 65W-90W WITH AXIS ALONG ABOUT 12N80W TO BEYOND 29N65W.
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT ABOVE THE COLD FRONT.
TSTMS COULD AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.  UPPER
TROUGHING IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NE CARIBBEAN AND A LARGE
AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER
TODAY AND CAUSE A BIG INCREASE IN RAIN FOR LATER TODAY THRU
SAT.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 16N56W MOVING W 5-10 KT PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 52W-58W.  OTHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE S OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-58W.  THE LOW HAS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION AS A TROUGH
ALONG ROUGHLY 10N50W 15N52W 18N57W 23N60W BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME ANY BETTER-DEFINED.  STRONG TRADES ARE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM IN THE 25 KT TO OCCASIONALLY 30 KT RANGE...
DUE TO THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE ATLANTIC.  TRADES ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS LAST WEEKEND
BUT STILL IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.  TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS E OF 40W AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS.
HOWEVER STRONG TRADES SHOULD PERSIST AND EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED N OF 21N W OF 30W.  WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 27N ALONG 37W/38W AND IS DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N39W 30N46W 31N50W.  OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  STRONGER
MID/UPPER HIGH IS IN THE NE ATLC NEAR 27N21W WITH MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N E OF 27W.  ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE
TROPICAL ATLC E OF 45W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE NOTED ALONG 33W S
OF 24N.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS MINIMAL.

$$
BLAKE

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