[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 5N40W 4N50W.
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 1.5N14W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 0.5N-3N BETWEEN 20W-30W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE S OF 5N BETWEEN 30W-39W.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE AXIS W OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W.
SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S
GULF S OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-95W.. BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD THE N
AS RETURN FLOW SLYS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS.  OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... CREEPING TOWARD S
FLORIDA.  MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE IN EARNEST TOMORROW NEAR
TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO HEAD NEAR SE
LOUISIANA FOR LATE FRI.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...FLOW IS RATHER
ZONAL IN THE W GULF WITH WSW WINDS OVER THE E GULF.  EXTREME DRY
AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR PICTURES FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
91W-100W.  TTHE NEXT FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE AREA LATE FRI BUT
MAKE LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS AN UPPER RIDGE

CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
AS OF 19/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO
CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ALONG 31N72W 22N78W STATIONARY TO
16N84W...EVEN DRIFTING A LITTLE TO THE W ON THE SOUTHERN
PORTION.  A BAND OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF 18N85W.  THIS FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND
HEAD SLOWLY WESTWARD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY THAT WAS PUSHING
THE FRONT ENTERS THE CANADIAN MARTIMES.  NORTHERLY 20-25 KT
WINDS ARE ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH PATCHY SHOWERS...
TAKING THE FORM OF A TON OF SMALL SHOWERS ON PUERTO RICO RADAR.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO...THE W ATLANTIC...AND CARIBBEAN SEA...N OF 10N BETWEEN
65W-90W WITH AXIS ALONG ABOUT 12N80W TO BEYOND 29N65W.
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT ABOVE THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO COMPLETELY LIFT N OF 30N AT THE 24 HOUR
POINT...WHILE 15-20 KT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE AREA.
TSTMS COULD AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.  A LARGE
AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER
TODAY AND CAUSE A BIG INCREASE IN RAIN FOR LATE TODAY THRU SAT.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 16N56W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 50W-58W.  OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE S OF 21N BETWEEN 40W-58W.  THE
LOW HAS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION AS A TROUGH BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME ANY BETTER-DEFINED.  OTHER HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.  TRADES ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE
WEEKEND BUT STILL IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC.  TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS E OF 40W AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA.  HOWEVER STRONG TRADES
SHOULD PERSIST AND EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
INTO THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS
FAVORED N OF 21N W OF 30W.  WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 29N ALONG
40W AND WILL CAUSE A WEAK FRONT TO ENTER THE AREA LATER TODAY.
STRONGER MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 26N22W WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N E OF 30W.  ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICAL
ATLC E OF 45W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE NOTED ALONG 34W S OF 24N.
ITCZ CONVECTION IS A BIT LESS THAN A WEEK AGO.

$$
BLAKE

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