[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 4N30W EQ50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 12W-15W...
AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1030 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N90W.  BROKEN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE S GULF S OF 25N...WHILE OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W DUE TO A COLD FRONT.  THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR SKIES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND N OF 23N.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SW FLOW DUE TO A LARGE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WELL INTO THE W ATLANTIC.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS
OVER THE NE GULF ALONG 25N90W 30N82W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH
TO MOVE NE INTO THE W ATLANTIC AT THE 24 HOUR POINT PRODUCING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
AS OF 18/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO
CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 30N75W 26N77W 23N80W 16N85W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...W CUBA...HONDURAS...
BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA.  NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF
OF MEXICO...THE W ATLANTIC...AND CARIBBEAN SEA...N OF 10N
BETWEEN 60W-90W WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT ABOVE THE COLD FRONT.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO COMPLETELY LIFT N OF 30N AT THE 24 HOUR POINT...WHILE 15-20
KT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE AREA.  SOME RESIDUAL SURFACE
MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT MAY DRIFT W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 60W...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 18N56W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 45W-60W.  A
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-45W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS N OF 5N AND
E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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