[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 4N19W 3N30W 1N40W EQ43W TO
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS BETWEEN
26W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...PREVIOUSLY IN THE GULF...HAS PUSHED
EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER NOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 18/15 UTC A SURFACE
HIGH WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF LOUISIANA NEAR 26N91W. COLD AIR OVER
WARM OCEAN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KTS EXISTS EAST OF 87W...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS WEST OF THERE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE OBSERVED
WEST OF 95W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO
THE EAST AND BE NEAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SOUTHWESTERLY JET WITH WINDS FROM 90-110 KTS
CONTROLS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
AS OF 18/15 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N75W
25N79W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N86W.
BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
FRONT. THERE IS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS THAT HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF
JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ENE WINDS FROM 15-20 KTS
ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING WSW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. THIS IS PRODUCING DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT NEAR THE
FRONT WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WITH
TWO SURFACE HIGHS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...A 1033 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N54W AND A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 38N26W. A WEAKNESS
EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS DRAPED IN
THIS WEAKNESS ALONG 32N46W 17N54W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A BLOW-UP OF CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 52W-55W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE RECENT BLOW-UP OF
CLOUDS NEAR 22N53W. TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
BEING ADVECTED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN
40W-50W BY A TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT THAT EXTENDS
FROM 15N48W TO A PEAK NEAR 21N40W TO 18N34W.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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