[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N18W 2N31W 2N46W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-40W WITH
SCATTERED CLUSTERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 27W AND THE
PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC/FAR W CARIBBEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE GULF MOVING
INTO THE FAR NE US. THIS IS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N81W
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS S OF 23N. A BAND OF
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS EXTENDS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N87W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N85W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W TO BEYOND 32N79W IN THE W
ATLC. A BAND OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 20N81W ACROSS CUBA TO NEAR
26N79W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 130 KT EXTENDS
FROM THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N98W TO OVER THE FAR SE US NEAR
32N83W. THE W GULF IS EXPERIENCING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND
FALLING DEW POINTS W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1028 MB HIGH ALONG THE E COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF THIS
MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER CLEARING THE GULF LATER
TODAY.

CARIBBEAN...
THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N89W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN E OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N79W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N
ACROSS CUBA DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE CLOUDS/ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS
SHIFTED E OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA E OF 80W AND WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF 60W GIVING MOST OF THE W ATLC FAIR SKIES EXCEPT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 47W-60W. LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N53W ALONG 27N51W TO BEYOND 32N47W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH S OF 23N.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE. RESULT...A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC
CENTERED E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N61W AND A LARGER 1036 MB HIGH
CENTERED S OF THE AZORES. TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N FROM
40W-50W BY A TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N48W TO A PEAK NEAR 21N40W TO 18N34W. THE COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND
WEAKEN ON THU.

$$
WALLACE



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