[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180505
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 2N21W 1N37W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-41W WITH
SCATTERED CLUSTERS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 17W AND THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N
W OF 42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE GULF MOVING
INTO THE NE US. THIS IS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WITH A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 17N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS S OF 22N. A BAND OF
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS EXTENDS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO 21N89W...COVERING S MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN S OF 21N FROM 86W-97W. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA
TO N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N98W
TO OVER THE FAR SE US NEAR 32N85W. THE W GULF IS EXPERIENCING
RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING DEW POINTS. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1030 MB HIGH OVER E MEXICO
NEAR 25N99W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF BY MORNING WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER CLEARING THE GULF LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN E OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 20N78W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA DOMINATING
THE CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAIN IN
PLACE AGAIN TONIGHT GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA CLEAR SKIES. THIS IS
CHANGING AS THE FRONT IN THE GULF IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WITH THE ASSOCIATED BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 16N88W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
DIPS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 16N. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA E OF 80W AND WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF 68W GIVING THE W ATLC FAIR SKIES. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 50W-68W CLIPPING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM OF LINE FROM 20N55W TO 24N53W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG 51W N OF
26N...RESULTING A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC CENTERED E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W AND A LARGER 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
AZORES. TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS BEING
ADVECTED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM 42W-55W BY A
TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT THAT EXTENDS FROM 13N54W
TO A PEAK NEAR 18N42W TO 16N36W. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TODAY THEN BEGIN TO
SLOW AND WEAKEN ON THU.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net