[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N40W EQ47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS RACING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AT 2100
UTC IT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TO THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO ALONG 30N86W 22N90W 17N93W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS ALONG 17N96W 21N98W.  A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ALSO
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 31N84W 26N86W.  LIGHT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT
...WHILE 20 KT S WINDS ARE E OF THE SQUALL LINE AND FRONT.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS EXTEND 240 NM BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  AN 130-150 KT JETSTREAM WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
TRAVERSES THE GULF FROM S MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG
18N103W 26N90W 32N85W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE 24 HOUR POINT...AND A 1028 MB HIGH TO BE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
20-25 KT TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE
SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 75W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE THE
ENTIRE SEA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO HONDURAS WITH CONVECTION AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.  TRADES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE E OF FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N60W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...IS FURTHER E
ALONG 31N52W 22N57W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-25N BETWEEN 52W-55W.  A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
AZORES NEAR 37N30W.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IS W
OF 60W.  TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 30W.  WESTERLY FLOW
IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 5N-20N E OF 60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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