[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N34W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM
N OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1.5N-4N E OF 7W TO THE
PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWEEPING EASTWARD FROM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES ACROSS TEXAS/NE MEXICO AND THE NW GULF. THE
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89.5W TO A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N93.5W
CONTINUING TO DIG S OVER E MEXICO TO NEAR TUXPAN. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM VERACRUZ
TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE
LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED W OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. STRONG SLY FLOW IS OCCURRING E OF THE FRONT AND OVER
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN
THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUING N ALONG THE EASTERN US SEABOARD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF AND THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E AND EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO CANCUN MEXICO THIS EVENING AND E OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...CLEARING THE GULF LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN...
A MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR JAMAICA COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA COVERING THE
AREA INCLUDING THE W ATLC AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY UPPER
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A
PATCH OF MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WHILE
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF W PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S
AND SW INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF
HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES ARE NOW DOMINATING THE AREA E OF 80W. THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF 65W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
FROM 50-65W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE WEAKENING ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 31N50W TO 20N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60-80 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 24N. A 1026 MB HIGH IS IN THE
W ATLC CENTERED S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N64W WITH A RIDGE COVERING
THE AREA N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE STATE OF FLORIDA. NARROWING UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALONG 40-43W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NE ATLC CROSSING THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE N OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH OVER THE
AZORES. A TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ENE
ALONG 14N35W...CROSSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA
NEAR 21N17W.

$$
GR




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