[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N40W 2N52W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
13W-18W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 998 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER N MEXICO NEAR
26N99W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N70W.  A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO CENTERS RESULTING IN
20-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE W OF 90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 87W.  A PLUME OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 25N.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT WITH
CONVECTION TO ENTER THE W GULF TONIGHT AND BE FROM N FLORIDA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.  ALSO EXPECT A GALE W
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N59W AND EXTENDS
TO 16N64W.  A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 15N70W 12N80W 10N83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W... WHILE
THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N BETWEEN
60W-75W.  EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FOR 20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO RESUME AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N70W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N55W 20N59W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NW E OF THE FRONT N
OF 22N.  A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT
38N30W THAT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF
50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGE IS W OF 60W.  TROUGH IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A
TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 30W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS
FROM 5N-20N E OF 60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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