[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N22W 3N41W 2N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
32W-39W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA S OF
6N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 27W-32W AND OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 47W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
N OF 1N TO THE IVORY COAST FROM 2W-6W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING SE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
ACROSS TEXAS INTO MEXICO AND STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF.
THIS IS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND AND SHOULD BE IN THE GULF LATER THIS
MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS
COAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE FROM W LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO
OVER THE E US BEYOND 32N83W. THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT A NARROW BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W
GULF AND OVER LOUISIANA FUELING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FORECASTED WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS GULF TODAY CLEARING THE
GULF LATE WED INTO THU.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 18N83W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS W CUBA
NEAR 22N83W. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE MUCH OF THE AREA CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING FROM THE
RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
W PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S CLIPPING THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF
PUERTO RICO TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
17N61W TO 15N72W. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINS WITH THIS FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADES ARE NOW DOMINATING THE AREA E OF 80W AND WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF 70W...FUNNELING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO JUST OFF THE
COAST FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. STRONG DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 53W-70W DIPPING ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS PASSED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY NOW EXTENDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N53W S TO THE
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W WHERE IT DISSIPATES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
250 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM W OF
THE FRONT...BOTH N OF 21N. A 1022 MB HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC
CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N68W AND COVERS THE AREA N OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA. A
NARROWING UPPER RIDGE IS IS TO THE E OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
BEING FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC THAT IS N OF
22N W OF 38W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL INLAND OVER
N AFRICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. A
STRONG TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT EXTENDS FROM
15N30W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W.

$$
WALLACE


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