[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N12W 3N30W 3N40W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF
27W TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE COVERS THE SE US...GULF OF MEXICO...NW CARIBBEAN INTO
THE W ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF OF THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 28N78W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NE TO OVER THE SE US. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING
UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO/TEXAS THEN OVER THE N GULF STATES
INTO THE W ATLC. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES S FLORIDA AND THE GULF E
OF 85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE N GULF COAST. COLD
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE GULF...EXCEPT THE E
PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RETURN FLOW HAS INCREASED THE
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W GULF WITH THE NEXT FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED W OF FRONT TONIGHT AND TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM E OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE ENE AND WILL STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N55W THEN EXTENDS SW
ACROSS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 16N70W. A DYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS OBSERVED FROM THIS POINT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. SO FAR THIS SEASON...THIS
IS THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNT OVER PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
REPORTED 2.72 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
ENCHANTED ISLAND. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NE CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE SEEN OVER COSTA RICA...MAINLY ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING FRONTAL SYSTEM. PUERTO LIMON IS
REPORTING MODERATE RAIN DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES DOMINATING THE BASIN E OF 80W BY TUE
MORNING...THANKS TO A HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 63-64W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 31N55W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE
U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 16N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN AROUND 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 2ON.
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SE US IS REACHING
THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE
W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN MOST AZORES. A STRONG TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 80 TO
120 KT AND ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 1ON30W TO OVER
AFRICA NEAR 20N16W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED S OVER
THE NE ATLC CROSSES THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THESE ISLANDS. MOST
OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE FRONT IS N OF
30N.

$$
GR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net