[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 5N40W 4N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 19W-22W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
30N-40N...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W.
NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
STRONGEST VELOCITIES OF 25-30 KT OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S
GULF S OF 24N TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FAIR SKIES ARE
NOTED N OF 24N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W...WHILE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF
E OF 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF ESPECIALLY E
OF 90W.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF AT
THE 24 HOUR POINT...AND PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM E
CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 21N77W 18N84W 17N90W MOVING SE.  25KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE FRONT.  AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
ARE S OF THE FRONT AND W OF 80W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA DUE TO 15-20 KT NE WIND
FLOW.  MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
N OF 15N AND E OF 73W DUE TO ESE FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...
THE COLD FRONT TO BE JUST W OF PUERTO RICO AT THE 24 HOUR POINT
WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
30N71W 23N74W 21N77W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON BOTH SIDES
OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.  A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N36W MOVING E.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A RIDGE
IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
22N41W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 16N-30N
BETWEEN 35W-50W.  A JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
8N50W 15N30W 17N15W.  IN THE TROPICS... ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS
RATHER ACTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  STRONG TRADES ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR THE E ATLC FOR A WHILE WITH SOME WEAKENING W OF
45W AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC MOVES IN.

$$
FORMOSA


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