[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141702
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N25W 3.5N32W 4N43W 2N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF 5N38.5W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 8N W OF 53W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 20W-26W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
5N-7.5N BETWEEN 31W-35.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GALES IN THE NE GULF AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES HAS LEFT THE AREA.  STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE LEAVES
THE E COAST OF THE US.  SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE S OF
A LINE FROM TAMPA TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23.5N98W AS COOL DRY AIR
PICKS UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.  ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS
ALONG 79/80W WITH STRONG DRYING ALOFT E OF 95W IN THE GULF.  THE
NEXT TWO DAYS LOOK CHILLIER THAN AVERAGE FOR FLORIDA WITH A
REBOUND LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY
ENTER THE NW GULF LATE MON AND LOOKS PRETTY CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADES ARE QUIETING TO 15-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL/E CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE W ATLC.  THIS IS DUE TO A
DIMINISHING OF THE HIGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION.  AT 1500 UTC THE FRONT WAS FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO 19N88W IN E YUCATAN WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
BEHIND THE FRONT.   SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN.  THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ... ISOLATED AT
BEST... IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 63W.  FOR NOW WINDS ARE
WEAK IN THE W CARIBBEAN BUT SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY AS THE
FRONT ROARS THROUGH.  THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN PUERTO
RICO LATE SUN AS WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROUGH DIVING THRU THE SE USA BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR DOMINATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W IN THE W ATLC JUST PAST NASSAU
INTO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79.5W.  TSTMS ARE FORMING ALONG A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 24.5N74W TO 31N71W.  GALES ARE NOW
OCCURRING NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N. FARTHER E... WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 25N60W.  OTHERWISE A STRONG 1034 MB
HIGH NEAR 32N32W CONTROLS THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG TRADES E OF
60W.  MID/UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS N OF 25N W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH AXIS BENEATH THE RIDGE ALONG 24N19W TO
20N52W.  WSW WINDS IN THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC IS FEEDING TONS OF
UPPER MOISTURE ASSISTED FROM THE ITCZ TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS S OF 18N E OF 55W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES N OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.  ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  STRONG TRADES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOR THE E ATLC FOR A WHILE WITH SOME WEAKENING W OF 45W AS
THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC MOVES IN.

$$
BLAKE

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