[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3.5N27W 5N40W 4N52W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-29W.
ISOLATED CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS NEAR 5N11W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7.5N BETWEEN 35W-43W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
IS FROM 5N-8N W OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 22N90W INTO MEXICO NEAR 19N95W THEN
STATIONARY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF.  MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT IS RAPIDLY LEAVING THE AREA WITH SOME COLD-AIR
STRATOCUMULUS NOTED OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA N OF 26N E OF
88W.  ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 81W N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
WITH STRONG DRYING ALOFT N OF 24N IN THE GULF.  THE NEXT TWO
DAYS LOOK CHILLIER THAN AVERAGE FOR FLORIDA WITH A REBOUND
LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE
NW GULF OVERNIGHT TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADES ARE QUIETING TO 15-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL/E CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE W ATLC.  THIS IS DUE TO A
COLD FRONT ABOUT TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS
BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCE.  SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ... ISOLATED AT
BEST... OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  FOR NOW WINDS ARE WEAK IN
THE W CARIBBEAN BUT SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY AS THE FRONT ROARS
THROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROUGH DIVING THRU THE SE USA BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR DOMINATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W IN THE W ATLC SW INTO FLORIDA
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  N OF 28N... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PREFERENTIALLY FORMING ON THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE.  A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION IS FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 70W-75W ALONG A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.  GALES
ARE NOW OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT N OF 25N. FARTHER E... WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM OF 25N60W.  OTHERWISE A STRONG 1033 MB HIGH NEAR
33N29W CONTROLS THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG TRADES E OF 60W.
MID/UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS N OF 25N W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH
A TROUGH AXIS BENEATH THE RIDGE ALONG 24N19W TO 20N52W.  WSW
WINDS IN THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC IS FEEDING TONS OF UPPER
MOISTURE ASSISTED FROM THE ITCZ TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS S OF 18N E OF 55W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES N OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS RATHER ACTIVE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

$$
FORMOSA/EB


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