[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 5N40W 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
13W-17W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-27W...AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
28W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N82W 26N85W 22N93W 19N96W 21N100W MOVING
E.  WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF
25N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE N GULF N OF
24N.  A BAND OF MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S
GULF S OF 24N.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF AND TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NE
GULF...WHILE A NEW SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TRADES MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS W OF 80W.  SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT A STRONG COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER NORTHERLY WIND.  THE FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS TRAVERSED FLORIDA
AND IS NOW IN THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  A STRONG
1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N30W MOVING E.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
AND W OF 65W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
58W-63W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-65W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 5N-20N
BETWEEN 10W-60W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS ALSO FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
10W-40W.

$$
FORMOSA



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