[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 6N30W 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
12W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 21W-24W...AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
30W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 31N86W 27N90W 23N98W 24N100W MOVING E.
WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N
OF 27N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE N
GULF.  A BAND OF MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 22N-26N.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NE GULF.  A NEW SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO BE INLAND OVER E
TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TRADES MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS W OF 80W.  SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN.  CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N E OF 70W WITH MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 65W.  A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION W OF 78W N OF JAMAICA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N64W 20N68W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 60W-64W. A
1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N32W MOVING E.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
AND W OF 65W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.  A RIDGE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-65W.  WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 10W-60W.
WESTERLY FLOW IS ALSO FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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